In my opinion, Trump himself understands the high likelihood of losing in the upcoming elections. A change of regime in Iran, which has been under global sanctions for nearly 50 years due to its nuclear policy, could significantly improve the position of the Republicans before the elections. If Trump manages to overthrow the current regime in Iran and install "one of his three suitable candidates" at the helm of the country, it would indeed be a major victory for the Western world. However, achieving this victory will be much more challenging than capturing the Venezuelan president.

Many military experts agree that US and allied missile strikes on Iran are unlikely to lead to a change of power inside the country. Therefore, Iran's political course will not shift, regardless of how many leaders are eliminated by the US allies. The death of Supreme Commander Ali Khamenei has confirmed this. Iran has lived under war conditions for many years and even decades. Missile strikes won't intimidate or surprise them. Most critical facilities have long been located underground, which is not easy to reach even with super-powerful missiles. The operation to destroy three of Iran's nuclear facilities last summer proved this point. Those facilities weren't destroyed. If they had been, Iran would have lost its entire nuclear stockpile, or at least a significant portion of it, rendering the current military intervention meaningless. At worst, Trump could carry out another operation similar to last summer's to finish off the remaining nuclear plants.

But it is evident that these strikes are not aimed solely at nuclear or military facilities. Washington has realized that it is impossible to destroy these facilities and that even obtaining a clear understanding of the extent of their damage after another attack is daunting. Thus, it cannot be assumed that Iran has lost its nuclear potential. Trump, who only last year ended eight wars, was unjustly denied the Nobel Peace Prize, and has decided to start the new year with the opposite process—fomenting wars.

Military experts note that without a large-scale ground operation, changing the regime in Iran is impossible. Therefore, Trump would need to engage in a full-scale war, during which American military losses could be quite significant (since the war would be fought not on US territory) to effectuate a coup in Iran. After Iran's retaliatory strikes on US bases, about 1,000 American soldiers have already been lost. How will the need for a full-scale war be explained to American voters?

Given all of the above, the most likely scenario appears as follows. The parties will continue to exchange missile strikes until Trump declares a complete victory over the Iranian regime, much like he did last year with the announcement of the destruction of Iran's nuclear facilities. Trump is unlikely to undertake a ground operation, and missile strikes will lead to widespread destruction and the deaths of thousands among the civilian population, but not to a change in regime or power. The situation seems to be at a standstill already.

Wave Analysis of EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward trend. Trump's policies and the Fed's monetary policy remain significant factors in the long-term decline of the US currency. The targets for the current trend segment may extend to the 25th figure. At the moment, I believe the instrument remains within the framework of global wave 5, so I expect an increase in quotations in the first half of 2026. The corrective structure a-b-c-d-e could be completed at any moment, as it has already taken a convincing form. I believe it is now prudent to seek areas and levels for new purchases with targets around 1.2195 and 1.2367, which correspond to 161.8% and 200.0% on the Fibonacci. However, we should now factor in the war in Iran.

Wave Analysis of GBP/USD:

The wave picture of the GBP/USD instrument is quite clear. The five-wave upward structure has completed its formation, but global wave 5 may take on a much more extended form. I believe that the construction of a corrective set of waves may finish soon, after which the upward trend will resume. Therefore, I can now advise searching for opportunities for new purchases with targets above the 39 figure. In my opinion, under Trump, the British pound has a good chance of rising to $1.45-$1.50.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often lead to changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There is never 100% certainty in the direction of movement, and there never can be. Always remember to use protective stop-loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.