The EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement on Tuesday and consolidated above the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1770. Thus, the bulls may continue their attacks on Wednesday toward the 50.0% corrective level at 1.1830. A consolidation above this level will open the way toward the 38.2% corrective level at 1.1889.

The wave situation on the hourly chart has become quite complex but is starting to clarify. Recent news about a two-week ceasefire between Iran and the United States supported the bulls, allowing them to form a new "bullish" wave. Now the picture looks like the beginning of a new bullish trend. Over the weekend, geopolitics turned negative again, as negotiations in Islamabad failed; however, the ceasefire is still in effect, and talks may resume this week. This information continues to support the bulls.

On Tuesday, the news background in Europe was absent, aside from a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde, who did not provide anything important to traders. In the United States, ADP and PPI reports were released, which also had little impact on traders' sentiment and intraday actions. The Producer Price Index in March came in at +0.5%, much lower than the expected +1.1%. Thus, US producers did not raise prices as quickly amid rising energy costs as the market had expected. Indirectly, this is a negative factor for the dollar; however, we know that inflation in the US rose to 3.3% in March, and this indicator is currently more important than the PPI. The ADP report showed 39,000 new jobs for the week, but it is not considered important by traders. First, this figure covers only one week, which is too short a period for conclusions. Second, traders continue to place more importance on the Nonfarm Payrolls report, which is released once a month. Overall, US reports failed to outweigh the geopolitical backdrop, which has been supporting the bulls for the second week in a row.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the 50.0% corrective level at 1.1778, allowing traders to expect continued growth toward the next Fibonacci level of 38.2% at 1.1849. A consolidation below 1.1778 will favor the US dollar and some decline toward 1.1706 and 1.1617. The bulls have managed to exit the descending trend channel, opening additional prospects for them. There are currently no emerging divergences.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

During the last reporting week, professional traders opened 778 long positions and 8,826 short positions. Over seven weeks, the bulls' total advantage has disappeared. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 201,000, while short positions amount to 208,000. Two months ago, bulls held more than a twofold advantage among non-commercial traders.

Overall, in the long term, major players continue to look with strong interest toward the euro. Of course, various global events—of which there has been no shortage in recent years—affect investor sentiment. In particular, the market's attention remains focused on the Middle East, where the war shows no sign of ending. Thus, in the near future, the euro and dollar exchange rates will depend not on the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve or the ECB, nor on economic data, but on the war in Iran. The dollar may once again benefit from this situation.

News calendar for the US and the Eurozone:

• Eurozone – Industrial production change (09:00 UTC).
• Eurozone – Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde (19:30 UTC).

On April 15, the economic calendar contains two entries that currently do not generate much interest. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Wednesday is likely to be very weak or absent.

EUR/USD forecast and trading tips:

Selling the pair is possible today upon a rebound from 1.1830 or a close below 1.1770 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1696. I recommended buying upon a close above 1.1770 with a target of 1.1830. These trades can remain open.

Fibonacci levels are constructed from 1.1577–1.2082 on the hourly chart and from 1.1474–1.2082 on the 4-hour chart.